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Initiation of Research Coverage: Capital Goods Industry

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

With the publication of a comprehensive report on the capital goods industry, William Blair & Company initiated research coverage of 11 capital goods companies.

Analyst Lawrence De Maria, who recently joined the firm along with Nick Heymann, Chase Jacobson, and Sam Eisner as part of a new Global Industrial Infrastructure team, assigned Outperform ratings to Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT $107.58), Fiat Industrial S.p.A. (FI.MI €8.52), and Titan International, Inc. (TWI $25.38).

De Maria assigned Market Perform ratings to AGCO Corporation (AGCO $48.73), Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE $37.65), Atlas Copco AB (SEK 165.80), CNH Global N.V. (CNH $36.33), Deere & Company (DE $81.43), Joy Global Inc. (JOYG $95.41), The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW $16.38), and Terex Corporation (TEX $26.39).

In his report, titled "Different Gear, Still Speeding," De Maria wrote, "We believe that the global capital goods industry offers excellent cyclical growth prospects through at least the middle part of the decade in many cases, although the share performance the past one to two years from the initial cyclical recovery has made stock selectivity paramount to maximizing returns. We believe that ample opportunities remain to invest in the sector, albeit more selectively at this point."

He continued, "Within the sector, we are primarily focused on the agriculture, construction, and mining segments, whose sales account for slightly less than a quarter of the total. We see potential for significant long-term strength in construction and mining markets as a result of infrastructure spending, and a generally favorable outlook for farm equipment, although one that has far more acute regional interplay. Although we believe each subsector has its merits, we prefer construction (early cycle, global demand) over farming (later cycle, weather) at this point in the cycle, and we like mining but are selective based on valuation."

William Blair & Company, L.L.C. is a global investment firm offering investment banking, asset management, equity research, institutional and private brokerage, and private capital to individual, institutional, and issuing clients. Since 1935, we have been committed to helping clients achieve their financial objectives. As an independent, employee-owned firm, our philosophy is to serve our clients' interests first and foremost. We place a high value on the enduring nature of our client relationships, the quality of our products and services, and the continuity and integrity of our people. William Blair & Company is based in Chicago, with office locations including Boston; London; New York; San Francisco; Shanghai; Wilmington, Delaware; and Zurich. For more information, please visit www.williamblair.com.

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William Blair & Company, L.L.C. receives or seeks to receive compensation for investment banking services from companies covered in this research report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making an investment decision.

William Blair & Company, L.L.C. is a market maker in the security of this company and may have a long or short position.

Additional information is available upon request.

Current Ratings Distribution (as of 6/30/11)

Coverage Universe
Outperform (Buy): 61%
Market Perform (Hold): 29%
Underperform (Sell): 1%

Inv. Banking Relationships*
Outperform (Buy): 8%
Market Perform (Hold): 1%
Underperform (Sell): 0%

* Percentage of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients, defined as companies for which William Blair has received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months.

Stock ratings, price targets, and valuation methodologies: William Blair & Company, L.L.C. uses a three-point system to rate stocks. Individual ratings and price targets (where used) reflect the expected performance of the stock relative to the broader market (generally the S&P 500, unless otherwise indicated) over the next 12 months. The assessment of expected performance is a function of near-, intermediate-, and long-term company fundamentals, industry outlook, confidence in earnings estimates, valuation (and our valuation methodology), and other factors. Outperform (O) – stock expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Market Perform (M) – stock expected to perform approximately in line with the broader market over the next 12 months; Underperform (U) – stock expected to underperform the broader market over the next 12 months; not rated (NR) – the stock is not currently rated. The valuation methodologies used to determine price targets (where used) include (but are not limited to) price-to-earnings multiple (P/E), relative P/E (compared with the relevant market), P/E-to-growth-rate (PEG) ratio, market capitalization/revenue multiple, enterprise value/EBITDA ratio, discounted cash flow, and others.

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