The managers of William Blair Dynamic Allocation Strategies have an extensive record as thought leaders in the analysis of portfolio performance. View their articles, books, and other published research below.
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Fiscal Cliff: Making Decisions in Crisis

Antecedent Analysis and Strategy Counsel

Brian Singer, head of William Blair & Company’s Dynamic Allocation Strategies team, provides a three-part analysis of the strategic dynamics at work in the fiscal cliff negotiations, as well as implications for investors.

Part I - Making Decisions in Crisis - November 2012
Part II - How Sharp is the Ax in Tax to US Equity Valuations - November 2012
Part III - From Fiscal Cliff to Debt Cliff and Budget Cliff and Sequestration Cliff - January 2013

Game Theory Primer for Macro Investors | April 2013

Game theory provides a framework for making sense of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments that affect asset prices. Brian Singer, head of William Blair’s Dynamic Allocation Strategies team, outlines how to leverage game theory analysis to assess investment opportunities.

Game Theory Primer - April 2013

Barron's - Q&A: Viewing Stocks From the Top Down | November 2012

Brian Singer, portfolio manager for William Blair’s Dynamic Allocation Strategies, discusses why he sees value in Europe and emerging markets – particularly China – in an interview with Barron's.

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Positioning Portfolios for Turbulent Times | June 2012

Investors are investing during a time of turbulence. This turbulence is not unusual, but it might seem unusual because investors’ experience and training have not prepared them for it. Game theory related to geopolitics, liquidity, and solvency issues, along with the integration of developed and developing economies, are the sources of today’s turbulence and investment opportunities. In this paper published by the CFA Institute, William Blair’s Head of Dynamic Allocation Strategies, Brian Singer, explores these issues and more.

Positioning Portfolios for Turbulent Times - June 2012

The Storm after the Calm | March 2012

The experience of almost every investor alive was accumulated during the stable Cold War period and the lingering calm that led to the current century. That stable world is gone and a period of instability, like that of the first half of the 1990s, is upon us. In this new environment, investors will need to draw upon a different set of investment disciplines in order to succeed. Game theory, macroeconomics, and geopolitics are tools that have not been standard to the typical analyst's toolbox, but they should be. This article discusses these tools and applies them to the current situation in order to understand today's ostensible confusion and to peer into the coming decades with appropriate perspective.

The Storm after the Calm - March 2012

Antecedent Analysis | November 2011

Antecedent counsel is provided as internal guidance to our portfolio managers and analysts. This counsel is not a forecast and has a longer time horizon than our commentaries. We use this guidance to inform our fundamental analysis, having measurable impact on our model inputs. Antecedent counsel should assist our clients in understanding our analysis and strategies.

Antecedent Analysis and Strategy Counsel - November 2011

Asset Allocation vs. Security Selection: Their Relative Importance

Discussion of the relative impact on portfolio outcomes of top-down compared to bottom-up investment decisions. 

Singer, Brian and Renato Staub. “Asset Allocation vs. Security Selection: Their Relative Importance.”  Investment Performance Measurement Feature Article, January 2011, Vol. 2011, No. 1:1-9.

Asset Allocation vs Security Selection - Their Relative Importance

The Empirical Law of Active Management: Perspectives on the Declining Skill of U.S. Fund Managers

This paper examines the evolution skill and diversification since the 1980’s among US mutual funds using a new analytical framework.

Senechal, Edouard. “The Empirical Law of Active Management: Perspectives on the Declining Skill of U.S. Fund Managers.” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2010, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 121-132 

The Empirical Law of Active Management

Modeling Illiquidity Premiums for Alternative Investments

Alternative investments generally require investors to commit funds for a specified lockup period. Illiquidity premiums provide compensation for the associated loss of investment flexibility.

Staub, Renato. “Modeling Illiquidity Premiums for Alternative Investments.” CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly. June 2010,Vol. 27, No. 2, 5 pages

Modeling Illiquidity Premiums for Alternative Investments

Strategies, structures and actions to create a successful top-down investment management firm

Strategies, structures and actions to create a successful top-down investment management firm.

Singer, Brian and Greg Fedorinchik. "Investment Leadership & Portfolio Management." New Jersey: Wiley Finance, 2009

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