If some kind of peace agreement were to be reached between Russia and Ukraine tomorrow, it may be relatively easy to switch the oil and gas taps back on again, but when it comes to food you can’t go back in time and replant the wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower crops. Hence, regardless of the political result, this situation is already turning into a greater global food crisis for many countries. While much of the immediate focus on the global repercussions of the war in Ukraine has naturally been on the energy markets, the attention is quickly shifting to food, as grain stores are depleted, prices increase, and food shortages will only increase across many parts of the globe.
In this Economics Weekly, we look at the food issue, who is the most vulnerable to the effects of the current conflict, and what impact this might have on inflation in the United States.
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Richard de Chazal, CFA, is a London-based macroeconomist covering the U.S. economy and financial markets.