The surprise election of Donald Trump as president clearly represents a dramatic change to the political landscape and potentially represents one for the economic landscape as well. The fact that we don't yet know which proposed legislation will make it through the gauntlet of Congress (and when), in addition to any other policy changes that might be introduced unilaterally by the president-elect (such as trade tariffs, changes to regulation, etc.), substantially increases the degree of uncertainty for growth, inflation, and financial markets in the coming year(s), making the margin for error on any economic prognostications that much wider. With that in mind, in this week's Economics Weekly we take a slightly broader approach by asking what might actually change with regards to economic growth under a Trump Administration, and how should we now be thinking about that growth in the very near term and the longer term.
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Richard de Chazal, CFA is a London-based macroeconomist covering the U.S. economy and financial markets.