This may be the first time we have started the year with so much uncertainty as to where economic growth and inflation might end up in the next couple of years. While we maintain a base-case scenario for slightly stronger near-term growth than was experienced in 2016, the reality is that there are a number of noteworthy wildcards that could significantly impact these factors to the upside and/or downside. In this week’s Economics Weekly we discuss one area where optimism has already been built in—the corporate sector with regard to capital investment, particularly for small businesses.
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Richard de Chazal, CFA is a London-based macroeconomist covering the U.S. economy and financial markets.