With presidential candidate Joe Biden consistently ahead of President Trump in the polls and the Democrats feasibly regaining control of the Senate, the possibility of a full sweep is certainly high—much more so than we felt possible earlier in the year. The president's poor handling of the coronavirus outbreak, increases in racial inequality protests, the subsequent collapse in the economy, and the end of the presidential campaigns of Senators Warren and Sanders seem to have hurt the president and are pushing Joe Biden closer to the finish line.
As we enter the homestretch for the upcoming November presidential election, in this Economics Weekly, we highlight some of the issues associated with a Trump second term versus a Biden presidency and Democratic-controlled Congress, and their potential impacts on interest rates and financial markets.
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Richard de Chazal, CFA is a London-based macroeconomist covering the U.S. economy and financial markets.