U.S. Election Cycle Ends With a Bang



US Election Cycle Ends With a BangWith an early morning concession call to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton brought to a close an election cycle unlike any in recent memory.

The cycle was characterized by an unusual degree of animosity between candidates and even within parties and witnessed by an increasingly angry, dissatisfied, polarized, and divided American electorate.

This latest surge of populism, which has been a major macro-thematic influence for the DAS team for several years now, was again vastly underestimated by both pollsters and by the betting markets.

Clinton's choice to avoid several Midwest states (in the middle of the so-called "Rust Belt"), thinking them locked up, came back to haunt her as Trump continued to pound away and carried Wisconsin, Michigan (likely), Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That, along with big victories in Florida and Arizona, propelled him to a surprising victory. 

Uncertainty now reigns (versus the gridlock we expected would come from a Clinton victory and a divided legislature) and will likely remain to some extent through early next year as Trump's cabinet appointees and path forward on issues such as immigration, trade, foreign relations, health care, and fiscal and monetary policy are clarified.

Learn more about the forward-looking implications of Trump's win

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