Debt Capital Markets

Weekly summaries of key drivers affecting the direction of taxable and tax exempt interest rates for municipal bonds.

William Blair’s Debt Capital Markets Weekly update summarizes key drivers affecting the direction of taxable and tax exempt interest rates for municipal bonds.

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Weekly Market Update | June 16, 2017

The target fed funds rate increased by 25 basis points, to 1.25%, as expected. Momentum for the well-signaled increase was all but unstoppable barring any sudden and exigent data to the contrary. Of note was the single dissenting vote cast by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, citing wage growth as anemic, particularly in that the current 4.4% U-3 unemployment rate (a level not seen since 2001) is now significantly below the Fed’s earlier 2012 target “NAIRU” of 5.6%.

View full June 16, 2017, report

Weekly Market Update | June 9, 2017

A trio of events controlled the market this week. Former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony inferred that President Trump did not obstruct justice, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, and the British election resulted in an unanticipated shift in power away from the Conservative Party. Risk-off trades followed generally propping up bonds, but some resistance persists because of absolute rates.

View full June 9, 2017, report

Weekly Market Update | June 2, 2017

May’s Employment Situation Report Missed Expectations. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 138,000 in May, falling short of the expected gain of 184,000. In addition, the BLS revised down March’s employment gains from 79,000 to 50,000 and April’s substantial gains from 211,000 to 174,000.

View full June 2, 2017, report

Weekly Market Update | May 26, 2017

The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in May revealed little regarding the end of easy money. The minutes from the May meeting released on Wednesday indicated that the Fed would increase the fed funds rate “soon” so long as the economy continues to progress as anticipated. The CME Fed Watch tool indicates an 83.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the June 13-14 meeting, up from 73.8% a week ago.

View full May 26, 2017, report