There’s been a lot of debate about this in the U.S. that, we’re a very consensus-driven policy committee and that leads to accusations of groupthink.... But we have to make a decision every six weeks, we don’t get to kick the can down the road, that means you have to compromise on your positions at times....

People who are accusing us of this—get ready, you might see the least groupthink you’ve seen from the FOMC in a long time.... I don’t find for myself personally the sense that that’s problematic, it doesn’t mean anything about the Chair’s leadership to have disagreements, that’s the whole point in having a committee—to have different points of view. The only real problem is that if it gets really down to 7 to 5 for us, and that one person then switches at the next meeting, then the whole trajectory changes. And that’s kind of the danger with these razor-thin, one vote things. It doesn’t give people confidence what the next vote will necessarily be. [Emphasis added]

– Fed Governor Christopher Waller, November 17, 2025

This week’s FOMC meeting saw the most dissent since 2019, when, similar to this week’s vote, one voted for a larger cut, while two voted for no change in rates. Back then, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard voted for a 50-basis-point cut and Kansas City’s Esther George and Boston’s Eric Rosengren both voted for no change in rates, as opposed to the majority vote for a 25-basis-point cut. This week, Fed Governor Stephen Miran also voted for a cut of 50 basis points, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted for no change in rates.

The issue of dissent on the board is becoming a much hotter topic for investors, as questions continue to mount around the degree of Fed independence and the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair. Foreshadowing what might come, at a dinner we attended in London several weeks ago, Fed Governor Waller stated that we should get ready for the least groupthink FOMC in a long time.

In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal looks at the history of dissent at the Fed and how the makeup of the FOMC looks heading into 2026.