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Market and Economic Insights

Our timely perspectives on macro events and market trends shaping the global financial markets.

Our Latest Insights

  • Economics Weekly: Record Profits, Lagging Pay

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal looks at why pay has lagged in a tight labor market, and what that means for the Fed and for investors.

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  • Economics Weekly: Special Report—Run-Up to the 2026 Midterms

    As November 3 midterm elections draw closer, investors are increasingly starting to think about what the potential outcomes might mean for financial market performance.

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  • Economics Weekly: Betting on Growth

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal examines whether growth alone can stabilize the nation’s finances, how much of that growth the tax system stands to capture, and what happens if it falls short.

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  • Economics Weekly: Where Are Rates Heading? A Look at Tightening Cycles and 10-Year Yields

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal takes another look at interest rates, examining how high rates are likely to go in the current cycle relative to past Fed tightening cycles.

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  • Economics Weekly: Record Margins, the AI Capex Cycle, and the Warning Signs to Monitor

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal examines the quality of today’s earnings, assesses where we are in the AI capex cycle, and identifies the signals that would suggest the recovery is becoming more fragile.

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  • Economics Weekly: AI Might Not Be as Disinflationary as the Market Hopes

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal discusses how we should really be thinking about the disinflationary impact of AI.

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  • Economics Weekly: The Path of Least Resistance for Yields Is Still Higher

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal discusses what factors are driving yields higher and the historical response from policymakers.

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  • Economics Weekly: The Great Wealth Transfer Flows to the Few

    In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal concludes that the transfer is large but narrow—it stays within families already near the top, deepening the concentration of wealth rather than easing it, with the impact on consumption far more muted than expected.

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  • Economics Weekly: Let the Market Decide

    One of the key points that came out of last week’s FOMC meeting was that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants the bond market to do more of the heavy lifting with regard to fighting inflation and promoting economic growth.

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  • Monthly Macro: China's Open-Weight Challenge and the Future of AI Economics

    William Blair macro analyst Richard de Chazal and group head of technology, media, and communications Arjun Bhatia examine how low-cost, open-weight AI models, many of them emerging from China, are reshaping competition across the AI ecosystem and challenging assumptions about the future economics of artificial intelligence.

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