While each U.S. Presidential election seems to be the most important one ever at the time (especially for those without an incumbent candidate), the significance around this election for financial markets has increased as the campaigns are playing out. The polls have tangibly tightened, the probability of a Clinton landslide has seemingly dimmed, and the possibility of political maverick Donald Trump being elected has correspondingly increased. In this week’s Economics Weekly, and ahead of the upcoming debates, we discuss a few of the possible implications for equity markets and interest rates from either a Clinton or a Trump in the White House.
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Richard de Chazal, CFA is a London-based macroeconomist covering the U.S. economy and financial markets.