Consensus is firmly in the camp that the Fed will not raise rates next week, with not one of the 175 economists polled by Bloomberg forecasting a rate increase (or a cut). The futures market, meanwhile, is attaching only a 21.9% probability to an increase, and those odds increase to 68.2% when looking out to the September FOMC meeting. In this Economics Weekly, Richard de Chazal discusses several reasons the Fed could decide to pull the trigger next week and not wait until September.



