Housing turnover continues to be the key driver of renovation demand. Despite today’s constrained housing market, William Blair survey data of consumers and home-sector professionals indicate that moving intentions significantly influence whether homeowners renovate and the scale of their projects.
The gap is notable. 67% of respondents planning to move completed a renovation project in the past year, compared to 33% of those who intend to stay. Movers are also more likely to undertake larger projects, including kitchen and bathroom remodels, flooring upgrades, and whole-home renovations. Stayers, by contrast, tend to focus on lower-cost improvements such as painting and routine maintenance.
This distinction matters for home improvement and building products companies because mobility-driven demand tends to generate larger, more profitable projects. Existing home sales remain near 4.0 million annually, below historical norms, limiting the mobility-driven renovation demand that typically supports larger remodeling projects.
Mortgage rates are a key factor in this equation, with 40% of respondents indicating they would consider moving if rates dropped to the mid-5% range. Such a shift could push home sales to 4.5 million units, unlocking more renovation activity and encouraging larger-scale projects.
However, the outlook for moving intentions in the two- to five-year horizon has softened. While short-term moving intent (within one year) has increased slightly, medium-term confidence has declined. Affordability remains a significant constraint, especially for younger and lower-income households, compounded by concerns about the job market and geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite these challenges, industry professionals remain optimistic about the future of renovation demand. Among contractors, interior designers, and skilled tradespeople, 58% described their forward pipeline as stronger than normal, while only 10% noted weakness. Growth is particularly pronounced among high-income clients, with professionals in premium and luxury markets reporting increased demand for larger, higher-value projects.
For categories such as flooring, kitchen and bath fixtures, and cabinetry, housing mobility remains an important driver of demand. Until home sales recover more meaningfully, renovation spending is likely to remain concentrated among homeowners preparing to move and higher-income consumers undertaking larger projects.
For more information on related investment opportunities and insights, read Home and Outdoor—Survey of Industry Professionals and Consumers; Insight Into the Housing Market, Furniture, Mattresses, and Home Renovations, published on April 27, 2026, by Phillip Blee, equity research analyst for the consumer sector.