The continuous glucose monitor (CGM) market is undergoing a major transformation, shifting its focus from type 1 diabetes and insulin-intensive type 2 diabetes to the largely untapped type 2 non-insulin (T2 NI) population. This segment could become a $4 billion market by 2030, one of the largest opportunities for GCM manufacturers. However, unlocking this potential requires addressing key challenges, including reimbursement, adoption, and patient engagement.
Recent survey data highlights the immense potential of the T2 NI market: CGM use among its patients could double to 50% within three years. To reach such growth levels, however, the industry must tackle several barriers. Many T2 NI patients view CGMs as lifestyle-support tools rather than critical medical devices, making broad insurance coverage essential for adoption.
Primary care physicians (PCPs) who manage the majority of T2 NI patients play a crucial role in this process. PCPs surveyed indicated they would increase CGM recommendations by 2.5 times if insurance coverage were more widely available. At present, only 34% of PCPs recommend CGMs to fewer than 20% of their new T2 NI patients. However, with expanded coverage, nearly one-third of PCPs stated they would recommend CGMs to over 80% of eligible patients. This underscores the importance of reimbursement for unlocking the T2 NI market’s potential.
Timing is another critical factor. Decisions on expanded CGM coverage for this population will significantly influence adoption timelines and revenue projections from 2026 through 2030. Even a delay of six to 12 months in approving broader coverage could slow growth, hindering CGM manufacturers from achieving their penetration goals.
Adoption is further complicated by differences in how T2 NI patients use CGMs. Because these patients are not insulin-dependent, CGM usage tends to focus on behavior or lifestyle adjustments. This difference creates unique challenges, including risks such as “alert fatigue” and lower long-term engagement. Survey projection shows a 50% utilization rate for T2 NI patients, lower than the optimistic estimates from CGM companies. If patient adherence underperforms, revenue per patient in this segment could trail that of insulin-intensive users, impacting overall market growth.
To address these challenges, CGM manufacturers must focus on PCPs, who serve as gatekeepers to adoption. On average, PCPs manage nearly 300 T2 NI patients annually, but they also juggle numerous other conditions, leaving little time for adopting new technologies. Currently, only 25% of PCPs recommend CGMs to most of their patients. Demonstrating clear clinical value while minimizing administrative burden will be essential to expanding this base and reaching the 50% penetration target.
Despite these hurdles, the T2 NI market offers a massive growth opportunity, with the potential to add over 5 million new users and significantly expand the total addressable market. By overcoming regulatory barriers, maintaining pricing power, and ensuring strong patient adherence, CGM manufacturers can unlock the full potential of this segment. If these challenges are addressed successfully, the T2 NI market could drive the next decade of growth for CGM leaders, solidifying its role as a pivotal opportunity for manufacturers and investors alike.
For more information on related investment opportunities and insights, read CGM Deep Dive: Analysis of Ketone Sensor, Type 2 Non-Insulin Market and PCP/Endo Survey Results, by William Blair healthcare analyst Brandon Vazquez.